As growth steadies and inflation eases, Polish investors are stepping up while foreign capital recalibrates – shaping the next wave of opportunity in housing, offices, and logistics.
Economic Momentum Returns
“In 2025, Poland’s economy is set to power ahead, with growth projected to hit a robust 3.2%, signaling continued momentum and resilience on the back of recent recovery trends,” Crido Legal Counsel Maciej Gorgol begins. “Current forecasts indicate that inflation in Poland will gradually ease, stabilizing below the 4.5% mark. This downward trend signals a broader upswing in the Polish real estate market, marking a steady recovery from the 2023 slowdown, and this momentum is expected to carry through and positively impact property values and investor confidence.”
“Poland has the largest real estate market in CEE and stands out among the top performers in Europe,” CMS Poland Partner Agata Jurek-Zbrojska adds. “Last year saw nearly 200,000 new residential units delivered, placing Poland among the top four European countries in terms of construction scale. The country’s commercial property investment volume exceeded EUR 5 billion, rising about 142% year-on-year, one of the highest growth rates in Europe, not just CEE.”
Local Capital Gains Ground
Beyond the macroeconomic outlook, the story of Poland’s real estate market is increasingly defined by who is investing – and how that balance between local and foreign capital is evolving.
Despite global economic difficulties and rising financing costs, MFW Fialek Associate Partner Rafal Siemieniec emphasizes that the sector attracts both domestic and foreign capital. “However, it is increasingly Polish investors – funds, developers, and private entrepreneurs – who are setting the direction for the market’s development. This is due to the growing wealth of the population, the investment experience of local players, and greater resistance to short-term currency fluctuations. Foreign capital – especially from Germany, Scandinavia, and Asia – continues to play an important role, but its share in transactions has stabilized in recent years.”
“Recently, there has been a noticeable decline in foreign investment in the Polish real estate market, while domestic investors are not fully able to take advantage of this decline or fill the gap,” KWKR Partner Lukasz Lanoszka notes. “There is still a lack of attractive models for investing in the real estate market by a wider group of investors (e.g., in the form of REITs) in Poland, which certainly puts domestic investors at a disadvantage.”
“Currently, CEE investors seem to be the most active,” Wolf Theiss Partner Grzegorz Skowronski adds. “Investors from the Czech Republic, Hungary, and the Baltic countries are interested in Poland. In my opinion, the domestic capital has a lot of potential that should be unlocked, which would contribute to further growth. This would contribute to the real estate investment market in Poland. REITs are a good example and could be an opportunity for Polish investors and the market itself.”
“There is a shift in the profile of the active investors, meaning that large institutional investors seem to be very restrained by the failing asset valuations, costs of financing, and global political and security turmoil, in particular war in Ukraine, and trying to shift their monies to other worldwide locations, e.g., India,” Solivan Partner Bartosz Miszkurka points out. “In spite of these uncertainties, we still see that the foreign capital dominates investment in large-scale, prime commercial assets, especially in logistics, modern offices, and retail. The foreign monies invested in logistics projects dominated the market in 2025. Also, investments in offices are largely dominated by foreign institutional players who are focusing on the biggest cities in Poland and choosing the prime quality assets that are ‘green and sustainable.’” On the other hand, Miszkurka says that there is a trend “that some institutional investors are trying to sell their assets to the regional, more opportunistic investors representing capital from such countries as the Baltic States, the Czech Republic, or Hungary. Domestic monies are mainly represented by individual Polish buyers investing in flats in the residential sector, dominated by the Polish developers like Echo Investment, Dom Development, and Develia investing in the land which will be developed with residential, PRS, or PBSA projects.”
Investor Strategies in Flux
As the market’s composition changes, so do the motivations behind investment decisions and the sectors drawing the most attention. “While the bulk of investments is funded by private capital, there remains a clear divide between the residential and commercial real estate sectors,” Gorgol points out. “The commercial investments are predominantly driven by foreign capital, reflecting international interest and institutional backing. In contrast, the residential market is largely powered by domestic investors, though the private rented sector stands out as a key exception, where foreign funds play an increasingly significant role.”
“Investors deciding to finance or pull back from certain projects have different reasoning across sectors of the market,” Gorgol adds. “In the residential sector, there is a trend toward stabilization with fewer investments. This comes from limited financing and rising construction costs. In turn, hotel and retail sectors are currently experiencing expansion. Due to an increase in foreign tourist visits and an increase in domestic demand, the hotel sector is expected to grow. The retail sector, meanwhile, has been recently bolstered by increased consumer spending, which has increased demand for retail spaces.”
“As always, location is key – both for commercial and residential properties,” Lanoszka adds. “In a demanding market, efficient sales/leasing can only be expected for projects with an attractive location or good accessibility. Shortage of attractive land and, consequently, the high prices of attractive land limit investors who would like to invest in a larger number of projects. Many larger investors, therefore, intend to invest in locations outside the largest cities, where attractive land is easier to find, provided that these locations have good transport links to large urban centers.”
“Local investors act more like institutional investors but faster with more flexibility, local market insight, and higher risk tolerance,” Miszkurka argues. “They use cash and pursue smaller deals, which often fly under the radar of larger property investors. Usually, they focus on older B-class office buildings or small retail centers or buildings that may be converted into retail or residential projects in prime locations and use their local network to get access to potential sellers and local contractors and architects to modernize it, convert it, improve its energy efficiency, and re-lease it at a higher rate. They understand local authorities better in order to manage the complex permitting process and are not afraid to participate in public tenders offering derelict properties, and have a better understanding of the creditworthiness of local Polish companies as potential tenants.” According to him, “they usually are very cautious and avoid projects which require significant bank financing or specific experience often required in the projects which are connected with infrastructure projects. A local investor is more aware of the future public transport infrastructure to be in place, allowing them to invest in a property before the value appreciation is priced in by the broader market.”
Barriers to Growth
Still, even a market as dynamic as Poland’s faces growing pains. Legal, regulatory, and procedural hurdles continue to shape how and how fast investments can happen. Addressing what is holding back investors from greater involvement, Siemieniec says that “the primary factors are high interest rates, which limit the availability of financing, and regulatory uncertainty, particularly in the areas of spatial planning and property taxes. Many players are holding off on decisions until fiscal and monetary policy stabilizes.”
Similarly, Lanoszka draws attention to two main problems investors face when investing in real estate in Poland. First, Lanoszka points to “the duration of construction procedures – building regulations are constantly being simplified, but the extensive involvement of neighbors and other interested parties often significantly prolongs the process of obtaining permits for investments carried out in cities and densely built-up areas, due to numerous appeals.” Second, Lanoszka notes, there is a “low availability of construction land, as in some cities, some areas still lack zoning plans, which hinders or prolongs construction procedures or makes construction impossible. Moreover, large industrial, commercial, or railway areas, currently almost unused, are often located in the centers of large cities, and without a change in zoning plans, they cannot be easily reallocated for new investment needs.”
Similarly, Miszkurka draws attention to local urban planning, saying that “for the last five years, Poland has been going through the very bumpy road of the urban planning law, which will finally and completely materialize in 2026. In this transitional period, many investment plans will have to be adjusted or even closed due to the change in the zoning land designation.”
Second, Miszkurka notes, there’s a hindrance in terms of “reprivatization claims and title uncertainty, mainly in Warsaw. Following WWII, private property in Warsaw was nationalized under the Bierut Decree. For decades, original owners and their heirs have been filing claims to have their property returned. Although a major 2021 law significantly curtailed the ability to challenge old administrative decisions, the issue hasn’t vanished entirely.”
Opportunities Hidden in Plain Sight
Despite these obstacles, Poland’s real estate landscape is far from static. Emerging risks and opportunities are beginning to redefine what sustainable growth could look like in the years ahead. “Every risk presents an opportunity at the same time. For example, there is a chance that the defense industry will have a positive impact on the real estate market,” Skowronski points out. “Additionally, the further development of infrastructure or energy projects could contribute positively to the Polish real estate market as well. Challenges that other European real estate markets face may cause investors to choose Poland instead.”
“In my view, we should not overlook the changing demographics and risk that there will be a lack of proper immigration policy, which will solve the problem of an aging society,” Miszkurka points out. “On the other hand, the big cities in Poland are still struggling to deliver communication and other infrastructure for the fast-growing residential and office developments. This infrastructure lag could cap property value appreciation in certain high-growth districts and lead to resident dissatisfaction.” Consequently, “opportunities may be hidden in developing modern, service-oriented senior housing – from active adult communities to full-care facilities – which is a long-term growth market,” he says. “Similarly, while Poland has a huge student population, both Polish and international, the Purpose-Built Student Accommodation market is still undersupplied and offers significant potential beyond the top-tier cities.”
Gorgol and Siemieniec draw attention to the ESG impact. “While demand for high-quality, ESG-compliant office space in top cities remains strong, a large portion of older office stock risks becoming obsolete,” Gorgol says. “Many investors underestimate the long-term impact of hybrid work and environmental regulations, which could drive vacancy rates higher in secondary buildings unless they are retrofitted or repurposed.”
“Among the new risks, rising energy costs and energy efficiency requirements for buildings are increasingly mentioned,” Siemieniec agrees. “At the same time, they provide an impulse for the development of green investments – from certified office buildings to eco-friendly housing estates. Investors who are already implementing ESG solutions gain a competitive advantage and easier access to financing. It is also worth paying attention to smaller regional cities, which are becoming attractive thanks to infrastructure development and an influx of new residents. These are areas that remain undervalued but offer long-term growth potential.”
Confidence as the Deciding Factor
“While every market has its challenges, the main barrier for Poland is perception,” Jurek-Zbrojska ultimately notes. “Treating Poland as a true peer to Western European economies would allow it to compete for capital and investment on equal footing. The country’s economic growth, market maturity, and resilience deserve recognition. The data speaks for itself: strong growth, low unemployment, moderating inflation, and a dynamic, opportunity-rich market. It’s time for investors and policymakers to acknowledge Poland’s rightful place alongside Europe’s leading economies.”
This article was originally published in Issue 12.9 of the CEE Legal Matters Magazine. If you would like to receive a hard copy of the magazine, you can subscribe here.